Republicans in confusion over abortion as ban proposed by Graham exposes rift

Then Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R.C.) introduced legislation banning abortions nationwide after 15 weeks of pregnancy — overshadowing new inflation numbers and undermining what many GOP strategists see as their top message this fall: “Leave it to states.”

“It’s an absolute disaster,” GOP strategist John Thomas said when Republican Senate nominees already targeted for their comments on abortion were asked to weigh in. .

Since the Supreme Court struck Roe v. Wade in June, Republicans have been fighting for more favorable policy ground for abortion, as polls and election results suggest the issue disproportionately energizes voters to vote for Democrats. But as the GOP seeks an effective counterargument to Democratic attacks on dozens of candidates who want to restrict abortion, it is sending an increasingly confused message to voters eight weeks before the midterms.

Some candidates downplay or back up past support for strict bans, while others push the debate on federal restrictions that many want to avoid.

Democrats are pouncing on those mixed signals to hammer home the simpler message they have promoted for months, warning that Republicans want to continue eroding access to abortion even after the Supreme Court stripped a constitutional right to the procedure.

Democratic pollster Molly Murphy said Graham’s 15-week bill, released Tuesday, only reinforced the argument that Republicans will try to impose significant new restrictions if they gain control of Congress. “I feel like I’ve had a roller coaster ride of a day between, ‘What kind of three-dimensional chess are they playing?’ kind of settling in, ‘They’re not,’” said Murphy, who works in the Arizona Senate.

Asked whether they would support Graham’s legislation, most GOP nominees in the closest Senate races gave ambiguous answers or did not respond. And though Masters said he would “of course” support Graham’s bill, his campaign spokesman retweeted a message that seemed to channel some GOP groans over Graham’s announcement: “Why why why why why.”

The aide, Zach Henry, removed the retweet Tuesday night and said he was not speaking on behalf of Masters.

More than half of registered voters oppose a 15-week ban on abortion with exceptions for the mother’s health, according to a Wall Street Journal poll last month.

While Masters has drawn particular attention for shifting positions — specifying only after his primary victory that a nationwide abortion ban would target third-trimester and “partial-birth” abortions — other GOP candidates have also backed off or downplayed their views.

In Minnesota, GOP Gov. Scott Jensen — who once said he would “try to ban abortion” as governor — recently released an ad that began, “In Minnesota, [abortion] is a protected constitutional right and no governor can change that. And I’m not running to do that.” In Michigan, Republican gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon has made an explicit appeal to voters who may balk at her vocal support for a ban on abortion throughout pregnancy with exceptions only for the life of the mother.

“And just like that, you can vote for Gretchen Whitmer’s abortion agenda and still vote against her,” Dixon tweeted last week, citing her Democratic opponent, after Michigan’s highest court cleared the way for a November ballot questioning whether the state constitution should guarantee access to abortion.

Thomas, the GOP strategist, said he thinks candidates in close races are smart to attempt a “pivot” on abortion. It’s not a winning issue for Republicans, he argued, “but the goal there is to reassure voters with concerns … so the candidate can get back to debating higher priority issues.”

But “will voters buy it?” Thomas said of the candidates’ shift. “Hard to say.”

Further complicating the Republican pitch: Some GOP officials are pushing state-level bans that are far stricter than Graham’s proposal. Republicans have tried to shift focus to Democrats’ positions, noting that the United States is one of fewer than a dozen countries that allow elective abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy. But even some anti-abortion advocates say the other side has more energy at the end of the day Roe triggering dramatic new restrictions on abortion in swing states.

Chuck Coughlin, a GOP strategist in Arizona, called a 15-week ban a “pragmatic” position — especially compared to the far stricter law working its way through the courts in his state. One of Masters’ former rivals in the primary, Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich, has argued for enforcement of that ban, which dates to the 1800s and bans all abortions except to save the life of the mother.

Democrats said they see a compelling case against Republicans, even with attempts to rally the party behind less restrictive bans, such as Graham’s proposal, which would allow the vast majority of abortions to continue but marks a sharp departure from the roughly 24-week standard below Roe.

“The Republican national abortion ban will be on the ballot in every Senate race,” Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement. Vulnerable Democrats in states where abortion remains legal — who have argued for months that their opponents could help enact national restrictions — immediately singled out Graham’s proposal.

In Nevada, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) again asserted that her opponent, former attorney general Adam Laxalt, would support a federal abortion ban; Laxalt denied this in an op-ed last month, but his campaign did not respond to a request for comment on Graham’s legislation. In New Hampshire, Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) said “Republicans are moving forward” with “a bill that bans abortion — no matter where you live.”

Still, abortion restrictions are unlikely to pass in the Senate even if the GOP regains control of the chamber in November — a political reality that several senators nodded to Tuesday. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has said he would not eliminate filibusters to pass abortion legislation, meaning such a bill would require 60 votes in the chamber to overcome a procedural hurdle. In the White House, President Biden is sure to veto any such measure, even if it reached his desk.

On Tuesday, McConnell declined to commit to bringing Graham’s bill to the floor, while Sen. John Thune (RS.D.), his top deputy, said he “would like to see the federal government get out of the abortion business.”

“I think every Republican senator running this year in these contested races has an answer to how they feel about the issue,” McConnell said. “And it can be different in different states, so I leave it up to our candidates, who are quite capable of dealing with this issue, to determine for them what their answer is.”

Asked if the GOP needs to be more united on abortion, Graham said candidates should go with what they are “personally” comfortable with.

Some Republicans said they saw no problem with divergent positions on abortion — as long as the GOP could steer the conversation back toward inflation and other issues on which they have a more unified tone.

Republican strategist Doug Heye, a former communications director for the RNC, said that “in theory, you always want” a coherent party message. But “Republicans almost got [former president Donald] Trump re-elected without even having the party platform,” he added.

Leading anti-abortion groups have pushed to limit the procedure at the federal level since the Supreme Court overturned Roe. Late last month, Students for Life Action sent a letter to all House and Senate Republicans arguing that the federal government should impose nationwide limits.

“We cannot delegate ending the injustice of abortion to states alone. All of us at all levels of society, and especially lawmakers, need to reverse nearly 50 years of public policy that allowed the life-changing harms of abortion to continue with taxpayer support,” wrote Kristan Hawkins, the group’s president.

Opponents of federal restrictions also made their case Tuesday on Capitol Hill. Ashbey Beasley was there to meet with Sen. Patrick J. Toomey (R-Pa.) to discuss an assault weapons ban after she and her son survived the Highland Park, Ill., shooting. on July 4 — but she took a quick detour after watching Graham hold a press conference to introduce his new legislation.

After the event ended, she stood up to share that she discovered her son had a fetal abnormality, her son at 16 weeks. After undergoing several in-utero surgeries, she said, she and her husband decided to deliver the baby to live outside the womb until he died eight days later. But she argued that other women should have abortion as an option.

“What do you say to a woman like me?” she asked.