King Charles’ toughest job may be to preserve the Commonwealth as Australia, New Zealand eye exit

When Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull met the Queen in July 2017, the country’s most famous republican emerged from the audience enthralled.

Speaking to reporters outside Buckingham Palace, Mr. Turnbull that, although he still did not support the monarchy, he was nevertheless a “very strong Elizabethan.”

After the Queen’s death last week, many republicans across the Commonwealth of Nations, the 14 former colonies that retain the British monarch as their head of state, echoed Mr Turnbull’s remarks, praising the Queen’s long service and personal character and the deep connection many people around. the world felt for her.

However, such a connection is not felt with King Charles. While his position in strongly monarchist Britain is not in doubt, it may be much more difficult to maintain the loyalty of the rest of the Commonwealth. (The majority of its 56 members already do not have the British monarch as their head of state.)

Opinion polls in Australia have consistently shown strong support for republicanism, although voters rejected this option when it went to a referendum in 1999, mostly due to disagreements over how an elected head of state would operate. Many Australian Republicans – including Mr. Turnbull, who led the campaign in 1999 – have been holding their powder since then, happy to wait until the Queen died to launch a renewed push. And while they have been careful to show respect for the late monarch, that time has now come.

After Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was elected in May, ending almost a decade out of power for the Labor Party, he appointed an Assistant Minister for the Republic, the first time the government has had such a role. But Mr Albanese, who supports ditching the monarchy, has made it clear a referendum on enshrining an indigenous voice in Australia’s constitution will take priority over changing the country’s head of state. With the Queen’s death, however, he will come under pressure to deliver on both fronts.

“Rest in peace Queen Elizabeth II,” Adam Bandt, the leader of the Greens, the country’s third largest party, tweeted on Friday. “Now Australia needs to move forward. We need a treaty with First Nations people and we need to become a republic.”

In a statement, the Australian Republic Movement referred to the Queen’s own statements in support of its case. “Queen Elizabeth respected the self-determination of the Australian people,” ARM said, adding that she “supported the right of Australians to become a fully independent nation during the 1999 referendum on an Australian republic and said she has ‘always made it clear’ that the future of the monarchy in Australia is a matter for the Australian people and them alone to decide by democratic and constitutional means.’”

Earlier this year, ARM presented a new proposal for how an elected head of state would function, as part of an effort to address any uncertainty ahead of a possible referendum. Under the group’s proposal, voters would choose from a list of candidates put forward by Canberra and the parliaments of Australia’s states and territories.

ARM claims its poll shows 73 percent of voters would support such a system, giving it a “greater chance of success in a referendum than any other model previously proposed.” Liberal MP Jason Falinski, who chairs a parliamentary group in favor of a republic, called it “huge progress” and asked his right-wing party, which is more divided on the issue than Labor or the Greens, to back the plan.

Even before the Queen’s death, there was a growing movement against republicanism across the Commonwealth realms. Barbados voted to become a republic in 2021. This week, Antigua and Barbuda’s prime minister said his country will hold a similar referendum.

Jamaica is likely to follow. When William and Catherine, now the Prince and Princess of Wales, visited in March, Prime Minister Andrew Holness told the couple that his country intends “to fulfill our true ambition to be an independent, fully developed and prosperous country.”

Australia is the largest Commonwealth realm after Canada and one of the culturally and politically closest to Great Britain itself. Should it break with the monarchy, many have predicted that the slow domino effect started by Barbados will cascade.

“It would be quite bizarre to have Charles as our head of state while Australia has their own,” Lewis Holden, campaign chairman for the New Zealand Republic, told The Globe and Mail in January.

One of the biggest complications with such a move in New Zealand would be Crown treaties with the Maori population, as some indigenous people fear becoming a republic could undermine the Treaty of Waitangi, the country’s founding document. But in February the Maori Party, which had previously opposed such a move, called for the queen to be removed as head of state.

“Our vision is a constitutional transformation that rebalances the scales of power in Aotearoa,” the party said, using the country’s indigenous name.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is herself a Republican, but she told a press conference on Monday that replacing the head of state is not a top priority. “I think it’s likely that it will happen in my lifetime, but I don’t see it as a short-term measure or something that’s on the agenda any time soon,” she said.

Holden, for his part, declined to comment further, issuing only a brief statement in which he expressed “sincere condolences.” In an email to supporters on Sunday, the Republic of New Zealand reiterated its policy of not commenting until after the Queen’s funeral and asked members to “keep things respectful.”

But after September 19, Mr. Holden: “our campaign begins again in earnest.”

With a report from the Associated Press

Map: Countries where King Charles is head of state

St. Vincent and

The Grenadines

MURAT YÜKSELIR / THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE:

COMMONWEALTH SECRETARIAT; ADVICE ABOUT

FOREIGN RELATIONS

St. Vincent and

The Grenadines

MURAT YÜKSELIR / THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE:

COMMONWEALTH SECRETARIAT; FOREIGN COUNCIL

RELATIONSHIPS

St. Vincent and

The Grenadines

MURAT YÜKSELIR / THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: COMMONWEALTH SECRETARIAT; THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

Royal succession: More from The Globe and Mail

The decibel

Explainers

Charles III is King of Canada. What now? Latest updates on the royal legacy

Queen Elizabeth’s state funeral is on September 19. Latest updates on how Britons and Canadians are grieving

On Her Majesty’s Legacy

Obituary: Queen Elizabeth, Monarch of Modernity

Queen Elizabeth, fashion icon

During a visit to Canada, Elizabeth made her mark as the most traveled monarch in British history