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Welcome to my game predictions for Week 2 of the NFL season. If you’re new here, I project the score for each game and the winning percentage for each team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses.
My NFL Betting Model takes in a ton of different metrics and creates a projection for each team. These projections are then used to project a spread and total for each game. My model can find the chance of a game covering the spread or the total. I use an “edge threshold” to decide what to bet on. You can find my best bets for week 2 here. If there is another game with an edge and there is no bet, it is probably due to an injury or some other circumstance that I am not sure my model can capture. If you have any questions, let me know in the comments and I’ll respond as soon as possible.
Weather is not expected to have a major impact on games like we saw in the 49ers vs. The Bears game last week in Chicago.
The app’s dark display theme disrupts how the table looks. If you’re on the app, switch to light mode by pressing the Aa button at the top to see it properly. XMOV is the model’s expected point differential for the game with the BetMGM spread from the time of publication to the right of it. XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) indicated at the time of publication to the right of this number.
| Team | xMOV | Line | xTOTAL | Total | xWIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
33.6% |
|||||
|
-4.3 |
-4 |
54.6 |
54 |
66.4% |
|
|
43.9% |
|||||
|
-2.7 |
-3.5 |
45.1 |
44.5 |
56.1% |
|
|
33.6% |
|||||
|
-4.3 |
-6 |
41.5 |
39.5 |
66.4% |
|
|
48.6% |
|||||
|
-0.9 |
-1.5 |
48 |
48.5 |
51.4% |
|
|
-4.3 |
-4 |
46.5 |
45 |
66.4% |
|
|
33.6% |
|||||
|
-2.1 |
-2.5 |
45.1 |
44 |
53.6% |
|
|
46.4% |
|||||
|
48.6% |
|||||
|
-1 |
-2 |
42.5 |
43.5 |
51.4% |
|
|
-2.5 |
-2 |
41.4 |
40.5 |
56.1% |
|
|
43.9% |
|||||
|
19.6% |
|||||
|
-9.8 |
-10.5 |
47 |
46 |
80.4% |
|
|
26.1% |
|||||
|
-7 |
-9.5 |
42.5 |
41.5 |
73.9% |
|
|
-6.8 |
-7.5 |
42.5 |
41.5 |
70.0% |
|
|
30.0% |
|||||
|
18.5% |
|||||
|
-10.3 |
-10 |
45.6 |
45 |
81.5% |
|
|
40.1% |
|||||
|
-2.8 |
-5.5 |
49.4 |
51.5 |
59.9% |
|
|
19.6% |
|||||
|
-10.2 |
-10 |
42.9 |
41.5 |
80.4% |
|
|
22.6% |
|||||
|
-8.5 |
-10 |
49.2 |
48.5 |
77.4% |
|
|
47.3% |
|||||
|
-1.7 |
-2 |
48.9 |
50.5 |
52.7% |
(Photo by Ryan Tannehill: George Walker IV / USA Today)
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