White Sox vs. Guardians, Pirates vs. Mets, several among expert picks

It’s “Total Thursday” here at The Action Network. There are eight games on the Major League Baseball schedule, and our experts have found betting value in three of them — all aimed at some sort of total.

Of course, we play on a total throughout the game, but we also have games on a total team and a total first-five rounds.

That said, let’s get to the bets.

MLB Odds & Picks

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians

DJ James: The American League Central race has heated up, and Thursday’s matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians is crucial for both teams. Lance Lynn will pitch for the White Sox, and Cleveland will call up Hunter Gaddis for a spot start.

Lynn has been steady all year, owning a 4.07 ERA with a 3.67 xERA. He ranks in the top-40% of MLB in Average Exit Velocity and in the 99th percentile in Walk Rate. In the second half, he is about as good as a starter can get with a 2.05 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP.

Gaddis is an above average strikeout pitcher who struggles with control at times. Fortunately for him, he is facing a White Sox team that is second to last in Chase Rate going into this season. Given that few of the Chicago hitters have excelled recently outside of righty, Gaddis shouldn’t allow too much damage.

Cleveland has just three hitters over a .325 xwOBA from righties since August 15th. They have found their way to victory, but most of that is a testament to strong pitching. No one in this lineup has an average exit velocity over 90 mph during that time frame. Lynn just needs to avoid the big bats in the middle in José Ramírez, Josh Naylor and Oscar González.

In addition to issuing walks, Gaddis also has trouble keeping the ball on the ground. In AA and AAA, his ground-ball rate hovered around 25%. This is not ideal when facing hitters like Eloy Jiménez and José Abreu. Still, those two and Luis Robert are the only Sox hitters to eclipse a .325 xwOBA.

Although Gaddis plays as the opener for a few innings, the Guardians have one of the best bullpens in baseball. They have a 3.28 xFIP with five arms under a 4.00 xFIP.

Neither of these teams hit right-handers very well. They both have a sub-100 wRC+ in the past month. Lynn will look like a savvy veteran, and Gaddis might surprise some hitters in the Sox order.

Bullpens also have solid weapons once the starters leave the game. Take the under at 8.5 (-115) and play it at 7.5 (-115).

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies

DJ James: The Philadelphia Phillies are one of the best hitting teams lately against right-handed pitching. In fact, over the past month, the Phillies have a team wRC+ of 117 with a .781 OPS. Noah Syndergaard gets the start against Pablo López and the Miami Marlins.

López has slipped a bit lately and has a 4.04 ERA with a 4.08 xERA. Most notably, Lopez has a 6.52 ERA in the second half of the season. His average exit velocity and hard hit rate are in the middle of the pack. Almost everyone in the Phillies’ lineup has a .300 xwOBA or higher. At least this means they can all put together strong plate appearances.

The Phillies chase more than average, and that’s one of López’s best qualities. If Philadelphia can avoid chasing, the Phillies’ batters will find a way on base.

Finally, the Marlins have a bullpen xFIP of 4.14, which ranks 21st in baseball. The Phillies will have plenty of scoring opportunities even with López leaving this game. Look for Philadelphia to put up some early runs on the right side, then tack on more as the game progresses.

Take the overall team over 3.5 (-140) to 4.5 (-105).

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets

Collin Whitchurch: It’s hard to find underdogs with value this time of year. So many teams have wrapped it up for the season, playing rookies and Quad-A types just waiting for the offseason. The Pirates are certainly one of those teams, which is why I can’t justify backing one of my favorite underrated pitchers — JT Brubaker — despite what looks like an appealing number.

That’s because the Pittsburgh offense has been so rotten all season. You can look at the recent stretch of great results and think there’s some inspired play to be found, but count me unconvinced because most of it came against a lousy Cincinnati pitching staff.

While I don’t have confidence in the Pirates’ offense against Carlos Carrasco, I have plenty of Brubaker, who has only two starts since the start of July in which he gave up more than three earned runs — against the Phillies and Braves.

His 4.36 ERA is supported by a 3.87 xFIP, and he can consistently miss bats while limiting both hard contact and the long ball. All in all, I love him for limiting the damage against the New York offense as Pittsburgh’s hitters continue to chip away.

I’ll take the first five innings under 4.5 at -120 and would also play under 4 at -110 or better.